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Eredivisie · Matchday 28Sunday 4 April · 16:00 · Abe Lenstra Stadion
Heerenveen7th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Groningen8th place
HEE 44%X 27%GRO 30%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Heerenveen 2.4 points per game, Groningen 1.4.
  • Heerenveen take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Heerenveen score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If Groningen score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.3
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Heerenveen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
144%2.28X27%3.77230%3.37
Double chance
1X70%1.42X256%1.781273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.39BTTS yes61%1.64BTTS no39%2.56

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Heerenveen · Columns: Groningen1-1 probability 11.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Heerenveen – Groningen18 January 20260-2
Groningen – Heerenveen16 August 20252-1
Groningen – Heerenveen25 January 20251-0
Heerenveen – Groningen22 September 20242-1
Groningen – Heerenveen19 March 20230-2
Heerenveen – Groningen22 January 20233-1