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Eredivisie · Matchday 15Sunday 6 December · 13:30 · Johan Cruijff ArenA
Ajax2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Utrecht12th place
AJA 62%X 22%UTR 16%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Ajax lead by 153 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Ajax 0.9, Utrecht -0.6.
  • Last 5 games: Ajax 2.2 points per game, Utrecht 1.4.
  • If Ajax score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Utrecht score first, they win 41% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.1
Over 2.564%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
162%1.61X22%4.50216%6.41
Double chance
1X84%1.18X238%2.641278%1.29
Goals
Over 2.564%1.56Under 2.536%2.77BTTS yes59%1.69BTTS no41%2.45

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
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5
Rows: Ajax · Columns: Utrecht2-1 probability 9.8%

Form

Compare →
AjaxDDWWW
UtrechtLWWDL

Head to head

Ajax – Utrecht10 May 20261-2
Utrecht – Ajax9 November 20252-1
Utrecht – Ajax20 April 20254-0
Ajax – Utrecht4 December 20242-2
Ajax – Utrecht3 March 20242-0
Utrecht – Ajax22 October 20234-3