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Eredivisie · Matchday 15Saturday 5 December · 17:45 · Spartastadion
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
NEC Nijmegen13th place
SPA 34%X 26%NEC 40%

Prediction

Key factors
  • NEC Nijmegen lead by 73 rating points.
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If NEC Nijmegen score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.7
Over 2.562%
Both teams score64%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a NEC Nijmegen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
134%2.94X26%3.90240%2.48
Double chance
1X60%1.68X266%1.511274%1.34
Goals
Over 2.562%1.61Under 2.538%2.64BTTS yes64%1.55BTTS no36%2.81

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sparta Rotterdam · Columns: NEC Nijmegen1-1 probability 11.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sparta Rotterdam – NEC Nijmegen17 February 20261-1
NEC Nijmegen – Sparta Rotterdam29 November 20253-1
Sparta Rotterdam – NEC Nijmegen6 April 20252-0
NEC Nijmegen – Sparta Rotterdam15 December 20241-1
NEC Nijmegen – Sparta Rotterdam24 February 20242-0
Sparta Rotterdam – NEC Nijmegen1 September 20231-1