TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Eredivisie · Matchday 15Saturday 5 December · 19:00 · AFAS Stadion Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
PSV Eindhoven3rd place
AZ 29%X 24%PSV 47%

Prediction

Key factors
  • PSV Eindhoven lead by 160 rating points.
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 54% of the time
  • If PSV Eindhoven score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.5 – 2.0
Over 2.568%
Both teams score68%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a PSV Eindhoven win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.49X24%4.08247%2.14
Double chance
1X53%1.88X271%1.401276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.568%1.47Under 2.532%3.12BTTS yes68%1.47BTTS no32%3.13

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: AZ Alkmaar · Columns: PSV Eindhoven1-1 probability 9.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

PSV Eindhoven – AZ Alkmaar7 March 20262-1
AZ Alkmaar – PSV Eindhoven9 November 20251-5
PSV Eindhoven – AZ Alkmaar11 January 20252-2
AZ Alkmaar – PSV Eindhoven19 October 20241-2
PSV Eindhoven – AZ Alkmaar6 April 20245-1
AZ Alkmaar – PSV Eindhoven17 December 20230-4