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Eredivisie · Matchday 26Sunday 14 March · 16:00 · Johan Cruijff ArenA
Ajax2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
PEC Zwolle14th place
AJA 73%X 18%PEC 9%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Ajax lead by 231 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Ajax 0.9, PEC Zwolle -0.7.
  • Last 5 games: Ajax 2.2 points per game, PEC Zwolle 1.4.
  • If Ajax score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If PEC Zwolle score first, they win 31% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.5 – 0.8
Over 2.565%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
173%1.37X18%5.6529%10.75
Double chance
1X91%1.10X227%3.701282%1.22
Goals
Over 2.565%1.53Under 2.535%2.90BTTS yes53%1.89BTTS no47%2.13

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Ajax · Columns: PEC Zwolle2-0 probability 11.0%

Form

Compare →
AjaxDDWWW

Head to head

PEC Zwolle – Ajax9 August 20260-2
PEC Zwolle – Ajax1 March 20260-0
Ajax – PEC Zwolle13 September 20253-1
PEC Zwolle – Ajax9 March 20250-1
Ajax – PEC Zwolle24 November 20242-0
PEC Zwolle – Ajax31 March 20241-3