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Eredivisie · Matchday 26Sunday 14 March · 16:00 · Van Donge and De Roo Stadion
Excelsior15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
NEC Nijmegen13th place
EXC 27%X 25%NEC 48%

Prediction

Key factors
  • NEC Nijmegen lead by 95 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: NEC Nijmegen -0.1, Excelsior -1.1.
  • If Excelsior score first, they win 54% of the time
  • If NEC Nijmegen score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.9
Over 2.564%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a NEC Nijmegen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.68X25%4.01248%2.09
Double chance
1X52%1.92X273%1.371275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.564%1.56Under 2.536%2.79BTTS yes65%1.54BTTS no35%2.84

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Excelsior · Columns: NEC Nijmegen1-1 probability 10.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

NEC Nijmegen – Excelsior8 September 20262-2
Excelsior – NEC Nijmegen4 April 20260-2
NEC Nijmegen – Excelsior9 August 20255-0
Excelsior – NEC Nijmegen6 May 20240-3
NEC Nijmegen – Excelsior13 August 20233-4
Excelsior – NEC Nijmegen19 February 20230-3