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Eredivisie · Matchday 26Sunday 14 March · 16:00 · AFAS Stadion Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
AZ 63%X 22%SPA 15%

Prediction

Key factors
  • AZ Alkmaar lead by 123 rating points.
  • AZ Alkmaar take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: AZ Alkmaar 0.8, Sparta Rotterdam 0.3.
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 42% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.1 – 0.9
Over 2.558%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
163%1.59X22%4.55215%6.57
Double chance
1X85%1.18X237%2.691278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Under 2.542%2.40BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.19

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: AZ Alkmaar · Columns: Sparta Rotterdam2-0 probability 10.5%

Form

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Head to head

AZ Alkmaar – Sparta Rotterdam22 February 20263-1
Sparta Rotterdam – AZ Alkmaar2 November 20250-1
AZ Alkmaar – Sparta Rotterdam26 January 20251-2
Sparta Rotterdam – AZ Alkmaar24 November 20241-2
Sparta Rotterdam – AZ Alkmaar2 March 20241-1
AZ Alkmaar – Sparta Rotterdam17 September 20232-0