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Eredivisie · Matchday 26Sunday 14 March · 16:00 · Abe Lenstra Stadion
Heerenveen7th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Fortuna Sittard6th place
HEE 57%X 24%FOR 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Heerenveen 0.2, Fortuna Sittard -1.3.
  • Heerenveen lead by 69 rating points.
  • Heerenveen take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Heerenveen score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Fortuna Sittard score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.0
Over 2.555%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-0 is the likeliest score within a Heerenveen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.76X24%4.11219%5.34
Double chance
1X81%1.23X243%2.321276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.555%1.83Under 2.545%2.21BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.18

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Heerenveen · Columns: Fortuna Sittard1-1 probability 11.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Heerenveen – Fortuna Sittard25 April 20262-1
Fortuna Sittard – Heerenveen8 November 20252-0
Heerenveen – Fortuna Sittard1 February 20252-2
Fortuna Sittard – Heerenveen2 November 20243-0
Fortuna Sittard – Heerenveen3 February 20243-3
Heerenveen – Fortuna Sittard25 November 20233-0