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La Liga · Matchday 21Sunday 24 January · 16:00 · Estadio de Mendizorroza
Alavés10th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Barcelona1st place
ALA 12%X 18%BAR 69%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Barcelona lead by 315 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Barcelona 2.2, Alavés -0.3.
  • Last 5 games: Barcelona 2.4 points per game, Alavés 0.4.
  • If Alavés score first, they win 35% of the time
  • If Barcelona score first, they win 86% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals1.0 – 2.5
Over 2.569%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
112%8.01X18%5.47269%1.44
Double chance
1X31%3.25X288%1.141282%1.22
Goals
Over 2.569%1.45Under 2.531%3.21BTTS yes60%1.68BTTS no40%2.47

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Alavés · Columns: Barcelona1-2 probability 9.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Barcelona – Alavés31 October 20266-1
Alavés – Barcelona13 May 20261-0
Barcelona – Alavés29 November 20253-1
Barcelona – Alavés2 February 20251-0
Alavés – Barcelona6 October 20240-3
Alavés – Barcelona3 February 20241-3