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La Liga · Matchday 21Sunday 24 January · 16:00 · Reale Arena
Real Sociedad5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Málaga20th place
RSO 66%X 21%MAL 13%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Sociedad lead by 134 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Real Sociedad 2.4 points per game, Málaga 0.4.
  • If Real Sociedad score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If Málaga score first, they win 38% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.2 – 0.9
Over 2.561%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
166%1.51X21%4.81213%7.74
Double chance
1X87%1.15X234%2.971279%1.26
Goals
Over 2.561%1.65Under 2.539%2.54BTTS yes54%1.86BTTS no46%2.17

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Real Sociedad · Columns: Málaga2-0 probability 10.8%

Form

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Head to head

Málaga – Real Sociedad18 October 20262-5