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La Liga · Matchday 37Sunday 23 May · 16:00 · Estadio de Mendizorroza
Alavés11th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Real Madrid3rd place
ALA 17%X 23%RMA 61%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 250 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Real Madrid 2.4 points per game, Alavés 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Real Madrid 1.4, Alavés -0.3.
  • If Alavés score first, they win 44% of the time
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 82% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.9
Over 2.554%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-2 is the likeliest score within a Real Madrid win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
117%5.91X23%4.43261%1.65
Double chance
1X39%2.53X283%1.201277%1.29
Goals
Over 2.554%1.84Under 2.546%2.19BTTS yes52%1.91BTTS no48%2.10

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Alavés · Columns: Real Madrid1-1 probability 11.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Real Madrid – Alavés21 April 20262-1
Alavés – Real Madrid14 December 20251-2
Alavés – Real Madrid13 April 20250-1
Real Madrid – Alavés24 September 20243-2
Real Madrid – Alavés14 May 20245-0
Alavés – Real Madrid21 December 20230-1