TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
La Liga · Matchday 37Sunday 23 May · 16:00 · Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Atlético Madrid2nd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Athletic Bilbao7th place
ATM 57%X 25%ATH 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 141 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atlético Madrid 3.0 points per game, Athletic Bilbao 1.6.
  • Atlético Madrid take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.9
Over 2.549%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.74X25%4.02218%5.67
Double chance
1X82%1.21X243%2.351275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.549%2.05Under 2.551%1.95BTTS yes49%2.05BTTS no51%1.95

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atlético Madrid · Columns: Athletic Bilbao1-0 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Athletic Bilbao – Atlético Madrid5 September 20263-0
Atlético Madrid – Athletic Bilbao25 April 20263-2
Athletic Bilbao – Atlético Madrid6 December 20251-0
Atlético Madrid – Athletic Bilbao1 March 20251-0
Athletic Bilbao – Atlético Madrid31 August 20240-1
Atlético Madrid – Athletic Bilbao27 April 20243-1