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La Liga · Matchday 37Sunday 23 May · 16:00 · Spotify Camp Nou
Barcelona1st place
Rinvalo prediction3-0High confidence
Málaga20th place
BAR 89%X 8%MAL 3%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Barcelona lead by 400 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Barcelona 2.2, Málaga -0.8.
  • Last 5 games: Barcelona 2.4 points per game, Málaga 0.4.
  • If Barcelona score first, they win 96% of the time
  • If Málaga score first, they win 13% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 1%
Expected goals3.9 – 0.8
Over 2.585%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score3-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
189%1.12X8%12.0823%35.59
Double chance
1X97%1.03X211%9.021292%1.09
Goals
Over 2.585%1.18Under 2.515%6.46BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.18

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Barcelona · Columns: Málaga3-0 probability 9.1%

Form

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