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Primeira Liga · Matchday 9Saturday 24 October · 18:00 · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Alverca10th place
Full time0-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✕ Missed
Arouca5th place
ALV 36%X 28%ARO 35%

What does the market say?

AlvercaDrawAroucaRinvalo36%28%35%
Market44%28%28%

✓ Agree · both back Alverca

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
  • If Alverca score first, they win 66% of the time
  • If Arouca score first, they win 65% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.3
Over 2.550%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Alverca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
136%2.75X28%3.52235%2.84
Double chance
1X65%1.54X264%1.571272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.550%2.02Under 2.551%1.98BTTS yes55%1.82BTTS no45%2.21

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Alverca · Columns: Arouca0-1 probability 8.4% · final score

Form

Compare →
AlvercaWWWLL
AroucaLDWWW

Head to head

Alverca – Arouca24 October 20260-1
Alverca – Arouca24 April 20262-1
Arouca – Alverca14 December 20251-0