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Primeira Liga · Matchday 9Friday 23 October · 20:45 · Estádio D. Afonso Henriques
Vitória de Guimarães13th place
Full time5-0Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✓ Result correct
Marítimo14th place
VSC 56%X 26%MAR 19%

What does the market say?

Vitória de GuimarãesDrawMarítimoRinvalo56%26%19%
Market61%23%16%

✓ Agree · both back Vitória de Guimarães

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Vitória de Guimarães 0.4, Marítimo -0.2.
  • If Vitória de Guimarães score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Marítimo score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.7 – 0.9
Over 2.547%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
156%1.80X26%3.87219%5.40
Double chance
1X81%1.23X244%2.261274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.547%2.14Under 2.553%1.88BTTS yes48%2.09BTTS no52%1.92

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Vitória de Guimarães · Columns: Marítimo5-0 probability 0.9% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Vitória de Guimarães – Marítimo23 October 20265-0
Marítimo – Vitória de Guimarães29 April 20231-2
Vitória de Guimarães – Marítimo13 November 20221-0
Marítimo – Vitória de Guimarães13 March 20220-1
Vitória de Guimarães – Marítimo22 October 20212-1