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Primeira Liga · Matchday 9Monday 26 October · 18:45 · Estádio de São Miguel
Santa Clara4th place
Full time1-2Rinvalo's pick: 0-1✓ Result correct
Benfica2nd place
SCL 18%X 24%BEN 57%

What does the market say?

Santa ClaraDrawBenficaRinvalo18%24%57%
Market11%20%68%

✓ Agree · both back Benfica

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 196 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Benfica 1.4, Santa Clara 0.2.
  • Benfica take 2.3 points per game away.
  • If Santa Clara score first, they win 48% of the time
  • If Benfica score first, they win 81% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.7
Over 2.549%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Benfica win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
118%5.50X24%4.11257%1.74
Double chance
1X43%2.35X282%1.221276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.549%2.05Under 2.551%1.96BTTS yes49%2.04BTTS no51%1.96

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Santa Clara · Columns: Benfica1-2 probability 9.7% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Santa Clara – Benfica26 October 20261-2
Santa Clara – Benfica13 February 20261-2
Benfica – Santa Clara12 September 20251-1
Santa Clara – Benfica15 February 20250-1
Benfica – Santa Clara14 September 20244-1
Benfica – Santa Clara27 May 20233-0