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Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 9Sunday 25 October · 18:00 · Estádio da Madeira
Nacional15th place
Full time1-0Rinvalo's pick: 0-1✕ Missed
Braga7th place
NAC 20%X 25%SCB 55%

What does the market say?

NacionalDrawBragaRinvalo20%25%55%
Market17%24%60%

✓ Agree · both back Braga

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • Braga lead by 199 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Braga 2.0 points per game, Nacional 0.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Braga 0.1, Nacional -0.5.
  • If Nacional score first, they win 50% of the time
  • If Braga score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.7
Over 2.550%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Braga win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
120%4.93X25%4.00255%1.83
Double chance
1X45%2.21X280%1.251275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.550%2.01Under 2.550%1.99BTTS yes51%1.95BTTS no49%2.05

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nacional · Columns: Braga1-0 probability 5.8% · final score

Form

Compare →
BragaWDLLW

Head to head

Nacional – Braga25 October 20261-0
Nacional – Braga28 February 20261-2
Braga – Nacional28 September 20250-1
Braga – Nacional21 February 20251-0
Nacional – Braga20 September 20240-3