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Primeira Liga · Matchday 27Sunday 21 March · 16:00 · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Alverca9th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Benfica2nd place
ALV 14%X 19%BEN 66%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 247 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Benfica 1.5, Alverca -0.2.
  • Benfica take 2.3 points per game away.
  • If Alverca score first, they win 38% of the time
  • If Benfica score first, they win 85% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals0.9 – 2.3
Over 2.562%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
114%7.07X19%5.16266%1.50
Double chance
1X34%2.98X286%1.161281%1.24
Goals
Over 2.562%1.62Under 2.538%2.62BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.24

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
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5
Rows: Alverca · Columns: Benfica0-2 probability 10.4%

Form

Compare →
AlvercaLWWWL
BenficaWWLWW

Head to head

Benfica – Alverca8 February 20262-1
Alverca – Benfica31 August 20251-2