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Primeira Liga · Matchday 27Sunday 21 March · 16:00 · Estádio da Madeira
Nacional15th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Arouca5th place
NAC 29%X 28%ARO 43%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arouca lead by 139 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Arouca 2.0 points per game, Nacional 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arouca 0.0, Nacional -0.7.
  • If Nacional score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If Arouca score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.4
Over 2.546%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Arouca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.50X28%3.56243%2.31
Double chance
1X57%1.76X271%1.401272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.546%2.16Under 2.554%1.86BTTS yes52%1.94BTTS no48%2.07

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nacional · Columns: Arouca1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →
AroucaLDWWW

Head to head

Arouca – Nacional1 November 20261-0
Arouca – Nacional21 February 20263-0
Nacional – Arouca20 September 20251-2
Nacional – Arouca1 February 20251-2
Arouca – Nacional25 August 20241-0