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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 27Sunday 21 March · 16:00 · Estádio José Alvalade
Sporting CP3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Casa Pia17th place
SCP 82%X 13%CPA 5%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Sporting CP lead by 329 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sporting CP 1.2, Casa Pia -1.0.
  • Sporting CP take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Sporting CP score first, they win 93% of the time
  • If Casa Pia score first, they win 23% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.9 – 0.6
Over 2.568%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
182%1.22X13%7.7225%19.38
Double chance
1X95%1.05X218%5.521287%1.15
Goals
Over 2.568%1.47Under 2.532%3.12BTTS yes45%2.20BTTS no55%1.83

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sporting CP · Columns: Casa Pia2-0 probability 12.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Casa Pia – Sporting CP30 October 20260-2
Sporting CP – Casa Pia16 January 20263-0
Casa Pia – Sporting CP8 August 20250-2
Casa Pia – Sporting CP9 March 20251-3
Sporting CP – Casa Pia5 October 20242-0
Sporting CP – Casa Pia29 January 20248-0