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Primeira Liga · Matchday 27Sunday 21 March · 16:00 · Estádio José Gomes
Estrela Amadora12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Moreirense8th place
EAM 40%X 29%MOR 32%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Estrela Amadora -0.1, Moreirense -0.9.
  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Moreirense score first, they win 62% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.2
Over 2.548%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Estrela Amadora win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.51X29%3.49232%3.17
Double chance
1X68%1.46X260%1.661271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.548%2.08Under 2.552%1.93BTTS yes54%1.87BTTS no46%2.15

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Estrela Amadora · Columns: Moreirense1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Moreirense – Estrela Amadora31 October 20262-1
Moreirense – Estrela Amadora2 May 20263-2
Estrela Amadora – Moreirense20 December 20250-0
Moreirense – Estrela Amadora2 March 20251-1
Estrela Amadora – Moreirense28 September 20242-1
Moreirense – Estrela Amadora7 April 20242-2