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Primeira Liga · Matchday 27Sunday 21 March · 16:00 · Estádio de São Miguel
Santa Clara4th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Marítimo14th place
SCL 61%X 24%MAR 15%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Santa Clara lead by 185 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Santa Clara 2.0 points per game, Marítimo 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Santa Clara 0.3, Marítimo -0.5.
  • If Santa Clara score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If Marítimo score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.7
Over 2.546%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
161%1.64X24%4.08215%6.86
Double chance
1X85%1.17X239%2.561276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.546%2.17Under 2.554%1.85BTTS yes44%2.25BTTS no56%1.80

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Santa Clara · Columns: Marítimo1-0 probability 13.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Marítimo – Santa Clara1 November 20260-2
Marítimo – Santa Clara25 February 20233-1
Santa Clara – Marítimo4 September 20222-1
Santa Clara – Marítimo23 April 20222-2
Marítimo – Santa Clara11 December 20214-1