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Primeira Liga · Matchday 33Sunday 9 May · 16:00 · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Alverca10th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Estoril18th place
ALV 50%X 27%EST 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Alverca 1.8 points per game, Estoril 0.0.
  • Alverca lead by 93 rating points.
  • If Alverca score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Estoril score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.0
Over 2.550%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Alverca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
150%1.98X27%3.73223%4.40
Double chance
1X77%1.29X250%2.021273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.550%1.99Under 2.550%2.01BTTS yes53%1.89BTTS no47%2.12

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Alverca · Columns: Estoril1-1 probability 12.5%

Form

Compare →
AlvercaWWWLL
EstorilLLLLL

Head to head

Alverca – Estoril10 May 20261-1
Estoril – Alverca27 December 20254-1