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Primeira Liga · Matchday 33Sunday 9 May · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho
Famalicão11th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Casa Pia17th place
FAM 57%X 26%CPA 17%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Famalicão lead by 132 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Famalicão -0.4, Casa Pia -1.0.
  • If Famalicão score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Casa Pia score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.6 – 0.8
Over 2.543%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.76X26%3.86217%5.79
Double chance
1X83%1.21X243%2.311274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.543%2.33Under 2.557%1.75BTTS yes44%2.27BTTS no56%1.79

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Famalicão · Columns: Casa Pia1-0 probability 14.0%

Form

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Head to head

Famalicão – Casa Pia23 February 20262-0
Casa Pia – Famalicão21 September 20251-1
Famalicão – Casa Pia16 May 20252-1
Casa Pia – Famalicão5 January 20251-1
Famalicão – Casa Pia17 May 20241-2
Casa Pia – Famalicão13 January 20240-2