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Primeira Liga · Matchday 33Sunday 9 May · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Gil Vicente10th place
ARO 39%X 30%GIL 31%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arouca take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Arouca score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Gil Vicente score first, they win 64% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.1
Over 2.542%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Arouca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
139%2.54X30%3.38231%3.22
Double chance
1X69%1.45X261%1.651270%1.42
Goals
Over 2.542%2.40Under 2.558%1.71BTTS yes48%2.07BTTS no52%1.94

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arouca · Columns: Gil Vicente1-1 probability 14.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Gil Vicente – Arouca11 May 20261-3
Arouca – Gil Vicente28 December 20252-2
Gil Vicente – Arouca10 May 20251-1
Arouca – Gil Vicente27 December 20241-1
Gil Vicente – Arouca26 April 20242-2
Arouca – Gil Vicente16 December 20233-0