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Primeira Liga · Matchday 33Sunday 9 May · 16:00 · Estádio da Madeira
Nacional15th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Porto1st place
NAC 11%X 18%POR 71%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Porto lead by 353 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Porto 3.0 points per game, Nacional 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Porto 1.4, Nacional -0.7.
  • If Nacional score first, they win 36% of the time
  • If Porto score first, they win 89% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals0.6 – 2.1
Over 2.551%
Both teams score42%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
111%9.43X18%5.47271%1.41
Double chance
1X29%3.46X289%1.121282%1.22
Goals
Over 2.551%1.95Under 2.549%2.06BTTS yes42%2.37BTTS no58%1.73

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nacional · Columns: Porto0-2 probability 14.2%

Form

Compare →
PortoWWWWW

Head to head

Nacional – Porto15 February 20260-1
Porto – Nacional13 September 20251-0
Porto – Nacional17 May 20253-0
Nacional – Porto12 January 20252-0