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Primeira Liga · Matchday 33Sunday 9 May · 16:00 · Estádio José Gomes
Estrela Amadora12th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Santa Clara4th place
EAM 28%X 29%SCL 43%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Santa Clara lead by 144 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Santa Clara 2.0 points per game, Estrela Amadora 0.2.
  • Santa Clara take 1.8 points per game away.
  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Santa Clara score first, they win 73% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.3
Over 2.542%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Santa Clara win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
128%3.55X29%3.45243%2.34
Double chance
1X57%1.75X272%1.391271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.542%2.40Under 2.558%1.71BTTS yes48%2.09BTTS no52%1.92

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Estrela Amadora · Columns: Santa Clara1-1 probability 13.9%

Form

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Head to head

Estrela Amadora – Santa Clara7 February 20261-0
Santa Clara – Estrela Amadora31 August 20250-0
Estrela Amadora – Santa Clara23 February 20250-0
Santa Clara – Estrela Amadora21 September 20241-0