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Primeira Liga · Matchday 33Sunday 9 May · 16:00 · Estádio José Alvalade
Sporting CP3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Benfica2nd place
SCP 42%X 27%BEN 31%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Sporting CP take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • Derby match.
  • If Sporting CP score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Benfica score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.4
Over 2.561%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Sporting CP win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
142%2.37X27%3.72231%3.24
Double chance
1X69%1.45X258%1.731273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.561%1.65Under 2.539%2.54BTTS yes63%1.59BTTS no37%2.70

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sporting CP · Columns: Benfica1-1 probability 11.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sporting CP – Benfica19 April 20261-2
Benfica – Sporting CP5 December 20251-1
Benfica – Sporting CP10 May 20251-1
Sporting CP – Benfica29 December 20241-0
Sporting CP – Benfica6 April 20242-1
Benfica – Sporting CP12 November 20232-1