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Primeira Liga · Matchday 17Sunday 10 January · 16:00 · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Alverca9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Marítimo14th place
ALV 57%X 25%MAR 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Alverca lead by 131 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Alverca 1.8 points per game, Marítimo 0.2.
  • If Alverca score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Marítimo score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.0
Over 2.553%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Alverca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.74X25%4.02218%5.62
Double chance
1X82%1.22X243%2.341275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.553%1.88Under 2.547%2.14BTTS yes53%1.90BTTS no47%2.11

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Alverca · Columns: Marítimo1-1 probability 11.4%

Form

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