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Primeira Liga · Matchday 17Sunday 10 January · 16:00 · Estádio José Gomes
Estrela Amadora12th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Estoril18th place
EAM 43%X 28%EST 29%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Estrela Amadora -0.1, Estoril -0.6.
  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Estoril score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.3
Over 2.554%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Estrela Amadora win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
143%2.31X28%3.61229%3.45
Double chance
1X71%1.41X257%1.771272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.554%1.86Under 2.546%2.16BTTS yes57%1.74BTTS no43%2.35

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Estrela Amadora · Columns: Estoril1-1 probability 12.5%

Form

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Head to head

Estrela Amadora – Estoril19 January 20260-5
Estoril – Estrela Amadora11 August 20251-1
Estoril – Estrela Amadora17 May 20254-0
Estrela Amadora – Estoril5 January 20252-4
Estoril – Estrela Amadora4 February 20241-0
Estrela Amadora – Estoril25 August 20232-1