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Primeira Liga · Matchday 17Sunday 10 January · 16:00 · Estádio José Alvalade
Sporting CP3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Santa Clara4th place
SCP 68%X 21%SCL 11%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Sporting CP lead by 182 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sporting CP 1.2, Santa Clara 0.3.
  • Sporting CP take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Sporting CP score first, they win 87% of the time
  • If Santa Clara score first, they win 39% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.7
Over 2.551%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
168%1.48X21%4.77211%8.77
Double chance
1X89%1.13X232%3.091279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.551%1.95Under 2.549%2.05BTTS yes45%2.24BTTS no55%1.80

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sporting CP · Columns: Santa Clara2-0 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sporting CP – Santa Clara3 April 20264-2
Santa Clara – Sporting CP8 November 20251-2
Santa Clara – Sporting CP12 April 20250-1
Sporting CP – Santa Clara30 November 20240-1
Sporting CP – Santa Clara1 April 20233-0
Santa Clara – Sporting CP8 October 20221-2