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Primeira Liga · Matchday 17Sunday 10 January · 16:00 · Estádio da Madeira
Nacional15th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Gil Vicente9th place
NAC 27%X 29%GIL 44%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Gil Vicente lead by 108 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Gil Vicente 1.6 points per game, Nacional 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Gil Vicente 0.2, Nacional -0.7.
  • If Nacional score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If Gil Vicente score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 11%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.3
Over 2.540%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Gil Vicente win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.72X29%3.47244%2.26
Double chance
1X56%1.80X273%1.371271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.540%2.53Under 2.560%1.66BTTS yes46%2.18BTTS no54%1.85

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nacional · Columns: Gil Vicente1-1 probability 13.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Gil Vicente – Nacional17 January 20262-1
Nacional – Gil Vicente9 August 20250-2
Nacional – Gil Vicente19 April 20250-3
Gil Vicente – Nacional7 December 20242-1