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Primeira Liga · Matchday 17Sunday 10 January · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Benfica2nd place
ARO 17%X 21%BEN 62%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 195 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Benfica 1.5, Arouca 0.0.
  • Benfica take 2.3 points per game away.
  • If Arouca score first, they win 42% of the time
  • If Benfica score first, they win 82% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.0 – 2.1
Over 2.561%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Benfica win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
117%5.92X21%4.70262%1.62
Double chance
1X38%2.62X283%1.201279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.561%1.63Under 2.539%2.59BTTS yes58%1.74BTTS no42%2.35

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arouca · Columns: Benfica1-1 probability 10.0%

Form

Compare →
AroucaLDWWW
BenficaWWLWW

Head to head

Arouca – Benfica14 March 20261-2
Benfica – Arouca25 October 20255-0
Benfica – Arouca13 April 20252-2
Arouca – Benfica1 December 20240-2
Benfica – Arouca12 May 20245-0
Arouca – Benfica6 January 20240-3