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Primeira Liga · Matchday 23Sunday 21 February · 16:00 · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Alverca9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Nacional15th place
ALV 50%X 27%NAC 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Alverca lead by 87 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Alverca 1.8 points per game, Nacional 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Alverca -0.2, Nacional -0.7.
  • If Alverca score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Nacional score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.0
Over 2.546%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Alverca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
150%2.01X27%3.69223%4.31
Double chance
1X77%1.30X250%1.991273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.546%2.18Under 2.554%1.85BTTS yes50%2.01BTTS no50%1.99

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Alverca · Columns: Nacional1-1 probability 13.0%

Form

Compare →
AlvercaLWWWL

Head to head

Nacional – Alverca12 September 20261-3
Nacional – Alverca18 April 20261-0
Alverca – Nacional7 December 20251-0