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Primeira Liga · Matchday 23Sunday 21 February · 16:00 · Estádio do Dragão
Porto1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Casa Pia17th place
POR 81%X 14%CPA 5%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Porto lead by 359 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Porto 1.4, Casa Pia -1.0.
  • Last 5 games: Porto 3.0 points per game, Casa Pia 1.2.
  • If Porto score first, they win 94% of the time
  • If Casa Pia score first, they win 25% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.4 – 0.4
Over 2.555%
Both teams score33%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
181%1.23X14%7.3925%19.92
Double chance
1X95%1.05X219%5.391286%1.16
Goals
Over 2.555%1.82Under 2.545%2.23BTTS yes33%3.03BTTS no67%1.49

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Porto · Columns: Casa Pia2-0 probability 16.7%

Form

Compare →
PortoWWWWW

Head to head

Casa Pia – Porto12 September 20261-4
Casa Pia – Porto2 February 20262-1
Porto – Casa Pia24 August 20254-0
Casa Pia – Porto12 April 20250-1
Porto – Casa Pia2 December 20242-0
Casa Pia – Porto21 April 20241-2