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Primeira Liga · Matchday 23Sunday 21 February · 16:00 · Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
Estoril18th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Braga7th place
EST 20%X 25%SCB 55%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Braga lead by 181 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Braga 0.6, Estoril -0.6.
  • Last 5 games: Braga 0.8 points per game, Estoril 0.0.
  • If Estoril score first, they win 48% of the time
  • If Braga score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.9
Over 2.556%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Braga win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
120%5.01X25%4.07255%1.80
Double chance
1X45%2.25X280%1.251275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.556%1.80Under 2.544%2.25BTTS yes56%1.80BTTS no44%2.25

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Estoril · Columns: Braga1-1 probability 11.4%

Form

Compare →
EstorilLLLLL
BragaWDLLW

Head to head

Braga – Estoril14 September 20261-0
Braga – Estoril3 May 20261-1
Estoril – Braga19 December 20251-0
Estoril – Braga19 April 20250-2
Braga – Estoril6 December 20242-2
Estoril – Braga13 April 20240-1