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Primeira Liga · Matchday 23Sunday 21 February · 16:00 · Estádio D. Afonso Henriques
Vitória de Guimarães13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Académico de Viseu6th place
VSC 48%X 27%ACV 25%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Vitória de Guimarães 0.6, Académico de Viseu -0.5.
  • If Vitória de Guimarães score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Académico de Viseu score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.0
Over 2.546%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Vitória de Guimarães win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.08X27%3.71225%4.02
Double chance
1X75%1.33X252%1.931273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.546%2.19Under 2.554%1.84BTTS yes50%2.00BTTS no50%2.00

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Vitória de Guimarães · Columns: Académico de Viseu1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

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Académico de Viseu – Vitória de Guimarães12 September 20262-1