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Primeira Liga · Matchday 23Sunday 21 February · 16:00 · Estádio de São Miguel
Santa Clara4th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Arouca5th place
SCL 40%X 30%ARO 29%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Santa Clara take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Santa Clara score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Arouca score first, they win 64% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 12%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.0
Over 2.539%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Santa Clara win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.47X30%3.31229%3.40
Double chance
1X71%1.42X260%1.681270%1.43
Goals
Over 2.539%2.57Under 2.561%1.64BTTS yes46%2.18BTTS no54%1.85

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Santa Clara · Columns: Arouca1-1 probability 14.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Arouca – Santa Clara13 September 20261-2
Arouca – Santa Clara2 May 20262-2
Santa Clara – Arouca21 December 20250-0
Santa Clara – Arouca26 April 20252-0
Arouca – Santa Clara15 December 20241-0
Arouca – Santa Clara11 February 20231-0