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Primeira Liga · Matchday 23Sunday 21 February · 16:00 · Estádio José Gomes
Estrela Amadora12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Rio Ave16th place
EAM 47%X 27%RAV 26%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Estrela Amadora -0.1, Rio Ave -1.0.
  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Rio Ave score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.1
Over 2.551%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Estrela Amadora win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
147%2.13X27%3.64226%3.90
Double chance
1X74%1.34X253%1.881273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.551%1.94Under 2.549%2.06BTTS yes55%1.82BTTS no45%2.22

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Estrela Amadora · Columns: Rio Ave1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Rio Ave – Estrela Amadora14 September 20263-3
Rio Ave – Estrela Amadora15 March 20262-1
Estrela Amadora – Rio Ave25 October 20251-2
Rio Ave – Estrela Amadora5 May 20252-0
Estrela Amadora – Rio Ave23 December 20241-0
Estrela Amadora – Rio Ave14 April 20242-2