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Primeira Liga · Matchday 18Sunday 17 January · 16:00 · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Alverca9th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Porto1st place
ALV 13%X 20%POR 66%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Porto lead by 266 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Porto 1.4, Alverca -0.2.
  • Last 5 games: Porto 3.0 points per game, Alverca 1.8.
  • If Alverca score first, they win 40% of the time
  • If Porto score first, they win 86% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.0
Over 2.552%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
113%7.42X20%4.95266%1.51
Double chance
1X34%2.97X287%1.161280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.552%1.94Under 2.548%2.06BTTS yes46%2.16BTTS no54%1.86

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
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5
Rows: Alverca · Columns: Porto0-2 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →
AlvercaLWWWL
PortoWWWWW

Head to head

Porto – Alverca9 August 20262-0
Porto – Alverca2 May 20261-0
Alverca – Porto22 December 20250-3