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Primeira Liga · Matchday 18Sunday 17 January · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior
Casa Pia17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Marítimo14th place
CPA 42%X 29%MAR 28%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Casa Pia 1.2 points per game, Marítimo 0.2.
  • If Casa Pia score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Marítimo score first, they win 61% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.1
Over 2.544%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Casa Pia win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
142%2.37X29%3.41228%3.51
Double chance
1X72%1.40X258%1.731271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.544%2.26Under 2.556%1.79BTTS yes50%2.00BTTS no50%2.00

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Casa Pia · Columns: Marítimo1-1 probability 13.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Marítimo – Casa Pia8 August 20261-0
Casa Pia – Marítimo19 March 20232-0
Marítimo – Casa Pia3 October 20221-2