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Primeira Liga · Matchday 18Sunday 17 January · 16:00 · Estádio do Rio Ave FC
Rio Ave16th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Gil Vicente10th place
RAV 23%X 27%GIL 50%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Gil Vicente lead by 124 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Gil Vicente 0.1, Rio Ave -1.0.
  • If Rio Ave score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Gil Vicente score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.5
Over 2.545%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Gil Vicente win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
123%4.30X27%3.72250%2.01
Double chance
1X50%1.99X277%1.301273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.545%2.22Under 2.555%1.82BTTS yes49%2.04BTTS no51%1.96

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Rio Ave · Columns: Gil Vicente1-1 probability 13.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Gil Vicente – Rio Ave9 August 20261-0
Rio Ave – Gil Vicente3 May 20260-0
Gil Vicente – Rio Ave20 December 20252-2
Rio Ave – Gil Vicente16 May 20251-1
Gil Vicente – Rio Ave6 January 20251-1
Rio Ave – Gil Vicente6 April 20243-0