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Primeira Liga · Matchday 18Sunday 17 January · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho
Famalicão11th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Estoril18th place
FAM 55%X 26%EST 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Famalicão lead by 136 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Famalicão 1.4 points per game, Estoril 0.0.
  • If Famalicão score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Estoril score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.7 – 0.9
Over 2.549%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Famalicão win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.83X26%3.84219%5.18
Double chance
1X81%1.24X245%2.201274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.549%2.03Under 2.551%1.97BTTS yes50%1.98BTTS no50%2.02

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Famalicão · Columns: Estoril1-1 probability 12.2%

Form

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Head to head

Estoril – Famalicão7 August 20261-1
Estoril – Famalicão26 April 20260-1
Famalicão – Estoril14 December 20254-0
Famalicão – Estoril12 April 20253-0
Estoril – Famalicão1 December 20242-1
Estoril – Famalicão28 April 20241-0