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Primeira Liga · Matchday 18Sunday 17 January · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Vitória de Guimarães13th place
ARO 43%X 29%VSC 28%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arouca lead by 79 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Arouca 2.0 points per game, Vitória de Guimarães 1.0.
  • Arouca take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Arouca score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Vitória de Guimarães score first, they win 60% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.1
Over 2.545%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Arouca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
143%2.30X29%3.50228%3.58
Double chance
1X72%1.39X257%1.771271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.545%2.22Under 2.555%1.82BTTS yes51%1.98BTTS no49%2.02

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arouca · Columns: Vitória de Guimarães1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

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Head to head

Vitória de Guimarães – Arouca8 August 20260-1
Arouca – Vitória de Guimarães7 February 20263-2
Vitória de Guimarães – Arouca30 August 20251-1
Vitória de Guimarães – Arouca18 January 20252-2
Arouca – Vitória de Guimarães12 August 20240-1
Arouca – Vitória de Guimarães18 May 20241-3