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Primeira Liga · Matchday 18Sunday 17 January · 16:00 · Estádio da Madeira
Nacional15th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Santa Clara4th place
NAC 27%X 29%SCL 44%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Santa Clara lead by 142 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Santa Clara 2.0 points per game, Nacional 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Santa Clara 0.3, Nacional -0.7.
  • If Nacional score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Santa Clara score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 12%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.3
Over 2.539%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Santa Clara win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.70X29%3.44244%2.28
Double chance
1X56%1.78X273%1.371271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.539%2.59Under 2.561%1.63BTTS yes45%2.21BTTS no55%1.82

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nacional · Columns: Santa Clara1-1 probability 14.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Santa Clara – Nacional10 August 20262-2
Santa Clara – Nacional11 May 20262-0
Nacional – Santa Clara11 January 20263-3
Santa Clara – Nacional30 March 20251-0
Nacional – Santa Clara4 November 20242-0