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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 18Sunday 17 January · 16:00 · Estádio José Alvalade
Sporting CP3rd place
Rinvalo prediction3-0High confidence
Estrela Amadora12th place
SCP 80%X 14%EAM 6%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Sporting CP lead by 326 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Sporting CP 1.6 points per game, Estrela Amadora 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sporting CP 1.2, Estrela Amadora -0.1.
  • If Sporting CP score first, they win 92% of the time
  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 23% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals3.0 – 0.8
Over 2.574%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score3-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
180%1.25X14%7.1726%16.81
Double chance
1X94%1.06X220%5.031286%1.16
Goals
Over 2.574%1.35Under 2.526%3.86BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.19

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sporting CP · Columns: Estrela Amadora3-0 probability 9.7%

Form

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Head to head

Estrela Amadora – Sporting CP8 August 20262-2
Estrela Amadora – Sporting CP11 April 20260-1
Sporting CP – Estrela Amadora30 November 20254-0
Estrela Amadora – Sporting CP29 March 20250-3
Sporting CP – Estrela Amadora1 November 20245-1
Estrela Amadora – Sporting CP29 March 20241-2