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Primeira Liga · Matchday 20Sunday 31 January · 16:00 · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Alverca10th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Sporting CP3rd place
ALV 14%X 20%SCP 66%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Sporting CP lead by 240 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sporting CP 1.2, Alverca -0.3.
  • Sporting CP take 2.2 points per game away.
  • If Alverca score first, they win 39% of the time
  • If Sporting CP score first, they win 85% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals0.9 – 2.2
Over 2.561%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
114%7.07X20%5.09266%1.51
Double chance
1X34%2.96X286%1.161280%1.24
Goals
Over 2.561%1.63Under 2.539%2.59BTTS yes55%1.82BTTS no45%2.22

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Alverca · Columns: Sporting CP0-2 probability 10.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sporting CP – Alverca22 August 20263-1
Alverca – Sporting CP22 March 20261-4
Sporting CP – Alverca31 October 20252-0