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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 20Sunday 31 January · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca5th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1High confidence
Porto1st place
ARO 17%X 23%POR 61%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Porto lead by 214 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Porto 1.4, Arouca 0.0.
  • Porto take 2.5 points per game away.
  • If Arouca score first, they win 45% of the time
  • If Porto score first, they win 83% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.9
Over 2.551%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score0-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
117%5.97X23%4.41261%1.65
Double chance
1X39%2.54X283%1.201277%1.29
Goals
Over 2.551%1.97Under 2.549%2.03BTTS yes49%2.03BTTS no51%1.97

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arouca · Columns: Porto0-1 probability 11.6%

Form

Compare →
AroucaLDWWW
PortoWWWWW

Head to head

Porto – Arouca23 August 20262-0
Porto – Arouca27 February 20263-1
Arouca – Porto29 September 20250-4
Arouca – Porto1 March 20250-2
Porto – Arouca29 September 20244-0
Arouca – Porto12 February 20243-2