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Primeira Liga · Matchday 20Sunday 31 January · 16:00 · Estádio da Luz
Benfica2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Moreirense8th place
BEN 79%X 14%MOR 6%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 262 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Benfica 1.5, Moreirense -0.9.
  • Benfica take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • If Benfica score first, they win 92% of the time
  • If Moreirense score first, they win 25% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.7 – 0.7
Over 2.567%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
179%1.26X14%6.9326%15.58
Double chance
1X94%1.07X221%4.801286%1.17
Goals
Over 2.567%1.50Under 2.533%3.00BTTS yes48%2.10BTTS no52%1.91

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Benfica · Columns: Moreirense2-0 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Moreirense – Benfica9 September 20260-4
Benfica – Moreirense25 April 20264-1
Moreirense – Benfica14 December 20250-4
Benfica – Moreirense8 February 20253-2
Moreirense – Benfica30 August 20241-1
Benfica – Moreirense14 April 20243-0