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Primeira Liga · Matchday 20Sunday 31 January · 16:00 · Estádio da Madeira
Nacional15th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Vitória de Guimarães13th place
NAC 30%X 29%VSC 41%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Vitória de Guimarães 0.6, Nacional -0.7.
  • Vitória de Guimarães lead by 63 rating points.
  • If Nacional score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Vitória de Guimarães score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.3
Over 2.543%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Vitória de Guimarães win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.31X29%3.50241%2.43
Double chance
1X59%1.70X270%1.431271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.543%2.34Under 2.557%1.75BTTS yes49%2.03BTTS no51%1.97

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nacional · Columns: Vitória de Guimarães1-1 probability 13.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Vitória de Guimarães – Nacional23 August 20261-0
Nacional – Vitória de Guimarães16 May 20262-0
Vitória de Guimarães – Nacional2 January 20262-1
Nacional – Vitória de Guimarães3 May 20251-2
Vitória de Guimarães – Nacional23 December 20242-2